I have spoken to a number of importers here in Miami about the current market and the outlook for Valentines Day 2016.
It seems that the combination of a Sunday holiday followed by Presidents Day on Monday in a Presidential election year is making buyers nervous. This has caused wholesale buyers to reduce bookings about 10-15%.
On the other hand, Supermarkets don’t seem to mind the Sunday holiday or the other distractions and orders are strong.
California crops are off a bit due to the EL Nino effect which will make Lilies, Stock, Snaps and other field crops harder to source.
As usual the Ecuadorean rose crop is about 10 days earlier than Colombia. With that said the weather in Bogota has been kind so far, combine that with a hard rose pinch and there should be good open market sales.
The biggest challenge I see this year will be airline schedules and performance. With little or no Southbound cargo available to fill planes going to South America there will be lift issues when trying to find space Northbound. The planes will fly but the rates will be high and the service will be less than perfect.
The weather in the US is always a concern and while this has been a mild winter so far Mother Nature always keeps us guessing.
There is always much speculation about the crop and availability but in the end tons of flowers will be bought, sold and enjoyed.
Currently prices are low due to lots of production in the pipeline.
Since Valentine’s Day will continue to rotate through the days of the week growers, buyers and sellers are forced to rethink the market conditions each year and hope they guessed right. But in the end most floral professionals agree that during holidays it is best to focus on taking care of your key customers and suppliers and let the rest sort itself out.