Valentine’s Update 2025

Valentine’s Update 2025

I reached out to my contacts for a look at what is happening at farm level and here is a summary of what they said.

“Adverse weather is definitely a factor this holiday. Medellin, poms, mums and hydrangea, are rnning a late and Ecuador roses and fillers too. The reasons for the crops delays are wet, cold weather and naturally that can bring quality issues. It’ll be critical to have the right partners this season for sure. I have heard that south of Quito (Cotopaxi area) is more delayed than the north.

With regards to prebooks, contrary to the others, I feel like our prebooks are robust and in many cases (not all crops but quite a few) we have sold out of items already. On the supermarket side, I have also seen an uptick in orders versus last year and given we have Friday valentine’s day this year, I think mass market really stands to have the biggest potential for success this year.

Freight as usual is an issue and vday rate increases begin this week, which of course is way too early.”

The weather in Ecuador has flipped. It was very dry with no rain to begin the rainy season and the county struggled with rolling blackouts. Now its been really rainy and very humid after the rain. Dramatically dropping production for the moment but should slow up the production to be on time with Valentines day shipping. Prebooks are less with more lets play the market. But seems everyone this week is open to discussing the holiday when they were hesitant before.

Bad weather in the northeast this week has likely slowed down pre-book activity by the retail florists earlier this week. We have seen bookings increase over the past 24 hours as the retail floral communities rallies itself towards this important holiday for their businesses. Likely more news next week.

The market is shaping up well so far, though much depends on the weather. La Niña is currently in effect, and while not a severe case, the weather in Medellín has been cold, rainy, and lacking sunlight.

In Ecuador, rose farms appear to be running slightly behind schedule, also impacted by adverse weather conditions.

Airline cargo space has been in short supply over the past few weeks, driving up freight costs just in time for the holiday season.

Prebooking numbers are consistent with previous years. However, as usual, retailers and wholesalers remain cautious, adopting a “wait-and-see” approach. Additionally, there are now more diverse channels for sourcing flowers, which is influencing buyer behavior.
The consolidation of some of the largest farms in Ecuador and Colombia over the past 36 months will play a significant role this holiday season. A large portion of their production is now allocated to fulfill mass-market orders.

California-grown flowers are limited, with production costs rising across the state. The market will particularly feel the absence of Sun Valley’s lilies, tulips, and other bulb flowers this season.
It’s still early, but we expect to have a clearer picture of the market dynamics by the 20th.

What does this mean for wholesalers and retailers? My guess is that there will be ample product around to meet demand however, over the years when there is lots of rain problems occur.

Stick with your tried and true suppliers and all should be fine. Good Luck and I will continue to follow up on any changes. Good Luck to all.

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